What's in a percentage?

 

The question of the day is:
What is X in X - 68% = 1%?
.. And how is this linked to presidential elections?

I came across this "puzzle" on the side of a milk carton that stated that the 1% fat containing milk has 68% less fat than whole milk. And it reminded me of the numerous times I've tried to help people understand percentage.

One reason this struck me was that I was nearly fooled for a fraction of a second. Reading the text one could think that whole milk has 69% of fat in it - which is obviously not the right answer. Whole milk has about 3% of fat and taking out 68%, about two thirds that is, leaves 1%.

The reason people get confused with percentages is that they are thinking adding and subtracting. And in percentages it's about dividing and multiplying (and some adding or subtracting). That is, unless you'd say: 1% reduced fat milk has two percentage points less fat than full milk.

And to wrap up this uninteresting windy blabber about percentages I wanna link this to the presidential elections - the reason I was probably open to think about this in the first place.

The thing is that people don't think about the difference between percentages and percentage points when they think about election results, which makes them misunderstand the vote differences between candidates.

See, for example in the Obama-McCain race Obama got some 52.5% of all votes and McCain got got 46.2% (reports Pollster.com my favorite poll site). And while the difference between the two was 6.3 percentage points Obama got 13.2% more votes than McCain [(52.5-46.2)/46.2]*100%.

Ensihiutaleet

Leijailivat taivaalta eilen
aamulla metrolle kävellessä.

Molemmat.
Kirpeä kuulas syysaamu.
Nosti mieleen jouluodotuksen.
Hong Kong - Shanghai - Peking - Phuket.

Perhettä ja ystäviä.
Tuskin maltan odottaa.

Töihin tullessa muistin kääntää uuden sivun mainiosta Taivasalla.net-seinäkalenteristä.

Marraskuun valokuva osui jotenkin erityisen suoraan vanhojen ystävien muistelufiilikseen. Kuvassa sattuu (käsittääkseni) olemaan taustalla hyvän ystäni Mikon kotitalo.

Kuva samasta paikasta alla:

From taivasalla.net - valikoituja otoksia

Kuva: Niklas Sjöblom (Creative Commons -lisensoitu)

Sano mitä sanot, mutta kuvat ovat voimakkaita. Erityisesesti hyvät kuvat. Erityisesti lapsuuden hyviä muistoja mieleen tuovat sellaiset.

The economy and the job market in 2009

Brilliant!



via Minna. Thanks.

A new day for the U.S. of A

Hey - that rimes!

... Which is good because I want to share with you the latest brilliant music video from Will.i.am, "It's A New Day". See for yourself (embedded below):

As you may have heard, will.i.am has earlier released two powerful songs (as online music videos) related to the Obama campaign: Yes We Can and We Are the Ones.

Both music videos were released on DipDive.com, an interesting online video service that promotes promising musicians and that has an interesting political advocacy twist -- at least after these releases.

I feel so profoundly good watching and listening to will.i.am's lates piece. And reflecting on the things that have happened in the last half a year. And regardless of how things will turn out, I think that this country has so deserved this current over "hype", which is not about supremacy but about hope.

... Véase también: Podemos con Obama (un otro vídeo de música brillante ... tjsp).

How this happened

As I just wrote in Finnish the Obama victory is an incredible example of the power of individuals to impact huge issues. Like Obama has said so many times: Ordinary people can do extraordinary things, when they work together. That's what this was and is all about.

The blogosphere and the web are full of excellent analysis on this and so many other related issues so I won't even try to make a thorough analysis in this post.

Actually, I just wanted to share this email from Obama to give those of you who haven't subscribed to his email list one glimpse into how the campaign has been run.

From: Barack Obama
Date: 2008/11/5 2:20 am
Subject: How this happened
To: Jaakko Helleranta


Jaakko --

I'm about to head to Grant Park to talk to everyone gathered there, but I wanted to write to you first.

We just made history.

And I don't want you to forget how we did it.

You made history every single day during this campaign -- every day you knocked on doors, made a donation, or talked to your family, friends, and neighbors about why you believe it's time for change.

I want to thank all of you who gave your time, talent, and passion to this campaign.

We have a lot of work to do to get our country back on track, and I'll be in touch soon about what comes next.

But I want to be very clear about one thing...

All of this happened because of you.

Thank you,

Barack

Wonderful inspiration. And a beautiful example of The Long Tail at work. .. More on that later.

P.S. In case you're interested: My Obama-related bookmarks are tagged Obama in Delicious. I warmly encourage you to start using one of these social bookmarking (excellent short video explaining social bookmarkin by Common Craft) services.

Kuinkas tässä näin kävi?

Obaman voitto on hurja esimerkki yksiloiden mahdollisuuksista vaikuttaa ratkaisevalla tavalla suuriin kokonaisuuksiin. Kampajan ammensi internetin suomia mahdollisuuksia rakentaen ikiaikaisen amerikkalaisen paikallistason osallistuuden päälle.

Voimaistamisen (empowerment) ja myos demokratian ideaalien riemuvoitto.

Kuten Pleksille kirjoitin, on ollut valtavan inspiroivaa nähdä tätä vaalityota ja omalla, varsin pienellä panoksella, osallistua siihen. Erinäisiä hurjia tarinoita kampanjaan osallistumisesta kuunnellessa tekee todella mieli painottaa oman osallistumisen vähäisyyttä. Vaan samalla ymmärtää hyvin sen mitä Kampanja on toitottanut kaiken aikaa: että pienista puroista on tämä suuri virta kasvatettu. Tästä oiva esimerkki seuraavassa lontoonmurteisessa postauksessa.

Palaan paremmalla ajalla niin fiiliksiin kuin eri näkokulmiin. Nyt sorvin ääreen, kun (tunnustaa täytyy, että) duunit jäivät eilen aika vähälle.

Pitkä häntä rulettaa.

Uuden ajan alku

Huojentunut, hyvä fiilis.

Siihen on helppo tiivistää tuntemukset tässä vaiheessa (klo 22.55 EST - "itäistä talviaikaa") kisakatsomossamme Washington DC:n Capitol Hill kaupunginosassa kolmisentoista korttelia Capitolista suoraan itään.

Oma ennustukseni Obaman n. 344 valitsijamiesäänestä reilun viikon takaa vaatinee hieman justeerausta ylöspäin. Florida näyttää paremmalta kuin osasin toivoa.

Fox News on juuri ennustanut Virginian valitsijamiesäänien menevän Obamalle ja hetkeä aikaisemmin New Mexicon. Floridassa tilanne Obamalla on kaulaa liki 300 tuhatta ääntä, kun kaikista äänistä on laskettu liki 90 prosenttia.

... klo 22.59 myös CNN julisti Virginian Obamalle ... Tämä on historiallinen voitto, joka nosti aikamoisen kiljunnan katsomossa. Ensimmäistä kertaa sitten 60-luvun alun punaniskakotiosavaltiomme on päätynyt demokraateille.

... klo 23.01: CNN julistaa Obamasta presidentin!

Nyt täytyy käydä korkkaamaan skumppaa - tai ainakin uusi kalja -- päivityksiä myöhemmin.

--- EDIT: klo 23.52 EST ---

Vau. Mielentöntä. Fiilis on todella katossa ja tapahtuman historiallisuus alkaa vasta pikkuhiljaa hamottua, vaikka skenaariota on maisteltu jo viikkoja.

Tulosten ensianalyysi näyttää vahvasti silä, mitä eniten toivoin; että vaalien tulos antaisi vahvan mandaatin uudelle suunnalle. Että sen syvin ydin nousisi niiltä väestön osilta, jotka ovat olleet joko historiallisesti polliittisessa varjossa tai jotka edustavat maan tulevaisuutta. Ja näin siinä näyttää käyvän:

96% mustien äänistä
65-68% nuorten, latinojen JA ensiäänestäjien äänistä (ei siis vain nuoret, vaan vastikään rekisteröityneet)

Nyt alkaa Obaman puhe. Lisää päivityksiä myöhemmin.

Don't vote...

... unless you care.


Video embedded: 5 Friends Uncensored

The last few months have really brought to the surface some of the best things about this big country.

But more on those l8ter. Now to the election nite watch!

Excitement in the air

I have to say that I'm still quite surprised that the U.S. presidential elections have affected me so much. To many it may not seem like a surprise -- after all, I've lived here for five and a half years already and lived through the grim times that America has seen under the Bush administration. If that get's all the rest of the world excited then why not me?

But I'm still surprised. Five years back I "promised" myself that I'd consider me a visitor in this wonderful country of great diversity (-- something that I have to say that I really, really value). That whatever would happen I'd view it as "their thing" and remember that my status is officially a non-resident alien.

Maybe the reason is just the same that has gotten the rest of the world so interested about these elections. Maybe it's because five years is almost half of my adulthood years. Maybe it's because I have to admit that in the phases of cultural adaptation I've gone over the ups and downs enough many times that I think I have to admit that I've adapted quite well. .. I have to add that in the scene that I live in five years makes me practically a native here.

I also have to add and admit/confess that I've learned to profoundly like this country in a number of ways. Yes, it surely has its annoyances. No doubt about that. And there surely are a number of things that I flat out don't like about this country. But I could say the same for my dear Finland.

I'll spare my sporadic reader(s?) from details for now. I'll just make this an election day blog opener. That is, a post to get things started. I've "promised" myself way too many times before that I'd start blogging about my experiences here. It's about time now. "Kuparinen rikki" as one could say in Finnish.

To close the post off, I'd like to share two excellent video clips and some links. The videos are embedded below and the links are pointers to my link collection in the social bookmarking service Delicious, which I warmly recommend to everybody. Don't be a beggar - share your stuff!
* A video interview about me and the elections in the main newspaper of Finland, the Helsingin Sanomat a week and a half ago
* My links on the presidential elections including pretty much all related links that I've bookmarked, and those related to Obama.

An excellent 30 minute Obama "infomercial" that I think concludes Obama's campaign very nicely


and a good 4 minute "Analysis of Barack Obama's 30 Minute Commercial" by The Young Turks.

And finally, a brilliant, brilliant humorist speech by Obama at the traditional Alfred E. Smith Foundation dinner gala in New York from a couple of weeks back.



See the second part of the speech, too. And consider McCain's speech as well.

P.S. My favorite poll tracker is Pollster.com and I was just recommended to check out the real-time electoral map of the Daily Kos.